Methodology, sources
and design system.
Every figure in The Cost of War comes from a public source and a documented choice. This page gathers the sources, the methodological notes and the design system behind the project — so the reader can verify, reproduce and disagree.
The data.
The project relies on public, traceable sources: international datasets, research institutes, statistical agencies and journalistic reporting for the most recent section. When multiple sources describe the same phenomenon, the page explains which figure is used and where caution is required.
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ACLEDArmed Conflict Location & Event DataGlobal event-level conflict data. Monthly aggregations 2015–2025 and country-level totals 2022–2024 feed sections 02 and 03.
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UNHCRvia Our World in DataRefugee population by country of asylum and country of origin, end-2024. The two are different lenses — section 04 specifies which one it is using and where.
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SIPRI Military ExpenditureApril 2025 releaseConstant 2023 USD for the spending time-series; current 2024 USD for the headline figures — 37% U.S. share and $2.718T global total. Country-level 2024 spend feeds the section 03 bubble field.
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World Bank CMOPink Sheet, April 2026Wheat (US HRW), DAP fertilizer, Brent crude, natural gas Europe. Series indexed to January 2021 = 100 for section 05.
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OECD Employment Outlook 2024real hourly wagesCPI-deflated real wages, Q4 2021 → Q4 2023. Used in the section 05 wages row.
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FAO Food Price Indexcontext onlyReferenced as context. The section 05 wheat series uses World Bank Wheat HRW, a commodity-specific price, rather than the composite FAO Cereals index.
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UN WPP 2023World Population ProspectsPopulation denominators for the per-100,000 normalisation in section 02.
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EIA · Reuters · AP · UNHCRactive-conflict reportingPrimary attribution for section 06 — the active-conflict window between February and April 2026, frozen at 12 April.
Methodological notes.
Where a number deserves a caveat — different units, different definitions, mixed sources — the explanation sits here, so the sections themselves can stay focused.
One consistent system.
A single palette, a single typographic voice, a single grid. The system is small on purpose — every constraint is a choice the reader can follow.
The project uses a semantic palette: the same colours carry the same meaning across the sections. This helps the reader follow how the military shock moves into other systems — exile, energy, food, wages and public spending. When a figure combines different categories — for example total conflict deaths — it is treated with visual caution, so unlike phenomena are not collapsed into a single signal.
A lean stack.
The project is built as a lightweight web experience: HTML, CSS and JavaScript. The choice is intentional — fewer dependencies, more control over narrative form and visual detail.