Project 01 · Systemic consequences · 2021–2024

In 28 of 39 OECD countries,
real wages fell after 2021.

Most of them were not at war.

This section traces how a military conflict in one country became an economic event in dozens of others. Through energy markets. Food supply. Labour costs. Military budgets. The data below is the record of that transmission.
Five systems · Jan 2021 = 100 · monthly · 2021–2024
Jan 2021
Conflict deaths
Refugees
Gas (Jan2021=100)
Wheat (Jan2021=100)
Mil. spend (Jan2021=100)
The structure · Jan 2021 – Dec 2024

Five systems.
One timeline.

Each row is a system. Each column is a month. Colour intensity is proportional to the indexed value — Jan 2021 = 100. Before February 2022, the grid is mostly dark. The systems are under stress. They hold.

48
Months shown
2021–2024
5
Systems
in parallel
Feb 24 · 2022

The line is not
a design choice.

It is the date on which every system in this grid changed. Not sequentially — simultaneously. The cells to the right of that line are a structurally different state from the cells to the left. The grid did not recover its pre-2022 shape.

×9.6
Gas peak
Aug 2022
+81%
Wheat peak
May 2022
Propagation · 2022–2023

Not sequentially.
In all of them.

Refugees: +50% in 12 months. Food: fertiliser +127% vs Jan 2021. Energy: gas ×9.6 by August. Military spending: a record in 2022, then again in 2023, then again in 2024. Each row tells a different story about the same event.

+50%
Refugees
2021→2023
+19%
Mil. spend
2021→2024
2024 · what remains

Some prices fell.
Wages did not recover.

Commodity prices have partially corrected. But real wages in 28 of 39 OECD countries remain below 2021 levels in 2023. Military spending has not corrected at all — it set a new record every year from 2022 to 2024.

$2,602B
Military spend
2024 · all-time record
Conflict deaths arrived immediately.
First week post-invasion · Feb 2022
Energy prices took 6 months.
Gas peak Aug 2022 · ×9.6 vs Jan 2021
Wages took longer.
Peak loss visible in 2023 · 28 of 39 OECD countries · Estonia −8.5%
Every cost
has an entry.
Not every entry
has a counterpart.
A partial record of costs transmitted by the conflict in Ukraine, 2022–2024.
Recorded costs
Recorded returns
Balance
Some costs do not appear in any ledger.

Where a conflict begins
is not where it ends.
Some consequences travel
further than others.

Some of them are still unfolding.

Section 06 focuses on a current escalation