Special · US–Iran–Lebanon · Feb 28 – Apr 12 · 2026

The war began
on 28 February 2026.
It has not stabilized.

On 28 February, US and Israeli forces struck Iran. Four days later, Lebanon became a second front. A ceasefire was announced on 8 April — and on the same day, Israel killed more than 350 people in Lebanon. Talks in Islamabad collapsed on 12 April after 21 hours. The Strait of Hormuz remained below 10% of normal traffic.

The field below is not a chart. It is a system in motion.
Numbers fluctuate within their verified ranges because the underlying data does.
Sources disagree. Counts are incomplete. This is the condition of knowledge during an active conflict.

Three populations
Military events — 3,000+ strike instances
ACLED · all 31 Iranian provinces
Displaced persons — 1M+ Lebanon · 1.9–3.2M Iran
UNHCR · range, not figure
Energy pressure — Brent $71 → $128
EIA · Hormuz traffic disrupted
—
—
Displaced · Lebanon
—
UNHCR · High confidence · verified range 1,050,000–1,200,000
Brent crude
—
EIA · price fluctuated $71–$128 during conflict
Hormuz shipping
<10%
Reuters · Apr 9 · of historical average · persists after ceasefire
Deaths in Iran · competing counts
1,332
Iran's UN envoy · 6 March · civilians
3,000+
Iran's forensic chief · 9 April · all deaths
5,000+
Reuters composite · 7 April · regional total
These counts cover different geographies,
dates, and definitions. They cannot be summed.

Systems do not stop
when conflicts do.

Data updated: 12 April 2026

Ceasefire declared · talks collapsed · Hormuz below 10% · status unresolved

On the
numbers

This section presents data from an active conflict where verification is incomplete and sources disagree. Numbers are shown as fluctuating ranges, not fixed values, because the underlying data is ranges.

Deaths in Iran: Three sources, three totals — 1,332 (Iran's UN envoy, 6 March, Medium confidence, civilians only) · 3,000+ (Iran's forensic chief, 9 April, Medium-High, all deaths) · 5,000+ (Reuters composite, 7 April, High, regional total across nearly a dozen countries). These figures are not comparable. They are shown separately.
Lebanon deaths: More than 2,000 killed since 2 March (Reuters · 12 April · High confidence). On 8 April — the day the ceasefire was announced — Israel killed more than 350 people in Lebanon, including at least 165 children (Reuters · 12 April).
Iran displacement: Between 1.9 and 3.2 million individuals temporarily displaced (UNHCR / Government of Iran · 12 March · Medium-High). The range reflects a household-to-person conversion and mixed source. It is a range, not a figure.
Brent $128: Single-day maximum on 2 April. March monthly average was $103. The daily peak and the period average are different facts. Both are shown in context.
Ceasefire and after: A two-week ceasefire was announced 8 April. US-Iran talks in Islamabad ran 21 hours on 11–12 April and collapsed without agreement. Key sticking points: Iran's nuclear programme, frozen assets, the Strait of Hormuz. Trump threatened a full naval blockade. Status as of 12 April 2026: unresolved.