Project 01 · Final signal · Feb–Apr 2026

The war is
still running.

After every cost traced in this project, 2026 opens another front: US and Israeli strikes on Iran, Lebanon pulled into the conflict, civilians displaced, energy routes under pressure.

Not a forecast. Not a live feed. A frozen observation of an unfinished war — 43 days that became displacement, casualties, energy pressure, failed talks.

43
Days · 28 Feb–12 Apr 2026
3,000+
Military strikes · ACLED
Unresolved
After talks collapsed
Frozen snapshot · US–Israel–Iran–Lebanon · 43 days · data freeze 12 Apr 2026

In 2026, the war
is still open.

This final line follows a conflict still in motion: US and Israeli strikes against Iran, Lebanon drawn into the theatre, displacement rising, Hormuz under pressure, and diplomacy failing before the data freeze.

Feb 28 · 2026

The strike campaign begins.

US and Israeli forces strike Iran. Military events begin to accumulate across the field. Blue marks recorded military actions — not people, and not deaths.

3,000+ strike instances · ACLED
Mar 2 · 2026

Lebanon becomes a second front.

Four days later, Lebanon enters the frame. The conflict is no longer confined to Iran: the line of impact widens across the region.

Second front active · Lebanon
Mar 27 · 2026

The line becomes displacement.

By late March, the human signal is no longer secondary. More than one million people are displaced in Lebanon as the conflict spreads beyond the first strike zone.

1.125M midpoint · UNHCR verified range
Apr 2 · 2026

The shock reaches energy.

Brent crude reaches its peak in the snapshot. The conflict becomes visible in fuel prices, shipping risk and the pressure around the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent $128 · EIA anchor
Apr 8–12 · 2026

A ceasefire is not an ending.

A ceasefire is announced. Strikes continue. US–Iran talks collapse without agreement. At the data freeze, the conflict remains unresolved.

Hormuz <10% · talks collapsed · 12 Apr data freeze
Civilian-targeted counts range from 1,332 reported by Iran's UN envoy to 5,000+ in a Reuters regional composite. These counts use different scopes and cannot be added.

The project began with deaths.
It ends with a war still open.

Data freeze · 12 April 2026

US–Iran talks collapsed · Lebanon displaced · Hormuz under pressure

On the
numbers

This section is a frozen snapshot, not a live monitor. It follows 43 days in which a US–Israel strike campaign against Iran widened into Lebanon, produced displacement, generated casualty reporting, pressured energy routes and ended the observed period without diplomatic resolution.

Blue marks military events. Purple marks displacement. Green marks energy pressure. Red marks civilian deaths — non-combatants killed in violence directed at the civilian population. Counts are shown as source-specific figures or verified ranges; they are not summed unless a source defines them as a total.

Strike line: Blue markers represent recorded military strike instances. They do not represent people and they do not encode death counts.
Civilian deaths: Reported counts of non-combatants killed differ by geography, date and definition. They are shown separately and are never summed.
Displacement: Lebanon is shown as a midpoint within a verified range. The range band remains visible to avoid false precision.
Energy: Brent and Hormuz are contextual signals, not part of the strike field. Interpolated values are visual readings between source anchors, not tick-by-tick prices.
Data freeze: The page is frozen at 12 April 2026, after US–Iran talks collapsed. The situation continued to evolve after this snapshot.