Project 01 · Systemic transmission · 2021–2024

Five systems.
One shock.

February 2022 was not only an invasion. It was the moment several global systems moved at once.

Each row is a system. Each column is a month. Values are indexed to the same baseline: January 2021 = 100. After the fault line, the pattern changes. Not gradually. All at once.

48
Months shown · 2021–2024
5
Systems moving in parallel
Feb 24
2022 · the fault line
Monthly prices · annual systems · indexed to Jan 2021 = 100
Jan 2021
01 — The Structure

Five systems.
One timeline.

The grid compresses four years into a single view: 48 months, from January 2021 to December 2024.

Five systems move in parallel: displacement, energy, food, fertilizer, military spending. Before the invasion of Ukraine, the grid is mostly dark. Pressure is visible, but contained.

The systems bend. They do not break.

48
Months shown · 2021–2024
5
Systems in parallel
02 — The Break

The line is not decoration.
It is the rupture.

The vertical line marks February 24, 2022. It is not a design choice. It is the day every system in this grid changed state.

The cells to the right do not simply continue the pattern on the left. They belong to another phase.

Refugees accelerate. Energy explodes. Fertilizer jumps. Military spending enters a new cycle. The grid does not return to its pre-2022 shape.

×9.6
Gas EU peak · Aug 2022
+126%
Fertilizer DAP peak · Apr 2022
03 — The Synchronization

Not sequentially.
All at once.

The shock did not travel neatly from one system to the next. It arrived everywhere.

Refugee numbers surged. Gas prices multiplied. Fertilizer costs spiked. Food systems tightened. Military spending reached new records.

Each row tells a different story. Together, they show the same event moving through global infrastructure.

+40%
Refugees · 2021 → 2022
+20%
Military spending · 2021 → 2024
04 — The Aftershock

Some prices fell.
The damage remained.

By 2023 and 2024, parts of the commodity shock had eased. Some prices corrected. Some markets cooled.

But recovery was uneven. Real wages in many OECD countries remained below early-2021 levels even as nominal pay increased.

Military spending did not correct: by 2024 it sat at index 120 — a fifth above the January 2021 baseline.

+20%
Mil. spending · 2021 → 2024 (index 120)
Conflict deaths arrived immediately.
First week after invasion · Feb 24 · 2022
Energy took six months.
Gas EU peak · Aug 2022 · ×9.6 vs Jan 2021
Real wages took longer.
Peak loss visible in 2023 · real wages still below 2021 in much of Europe
Source: OECD Employment Outlook 2024 — real hourly wages, CPI-deflated, 2021Q4 → 2023Q4. We use the same CPI-deflated metric across countries for comparability.
Every cost
has an entry.
Not every entry
has a counterpart.
A partial ledger of costs transmitted by the war in Ukraine, 2022–2024.
Recorded costs
Recorded returns
Balance
Some costs do not appear in any ledger.

The war did not only redraw borders.
It rewired the systems that make ordinary life possible: heat, bread, wages, shelter, security.

A battlefield can be far away. A shockwave is not.

Coming next · Section 06

And then, in 2026,
a new fault opened.

Four years after Ukraine, the same instruments started reading again — refugees, oil, wheat, fertilizer, military budgets. Iran. Lebanon. The Strait of Hormuz. Would the transmission follow the same path, or had the world rewired itself in the years between? Section 06 listens for the answer.